Steelers vs. Browns odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, Advanced Model NFL predictions

Mike Tomlin leads the Pittsburgh Steelers into a Week 3 matchup against a division rival. The Steelers will visit the Cleveland Browns in a Thursday Night Football game between the teams at 1-1. Last Sunday, Pittsburgh lost to the New England Patriots 17-14. Cleveland collapsed under the weight of a 13-point lead in Week 2, eventually falling to the New York Jets, and the Browns will look to respond after losing both contests to the Steelers in the 2021 season.

Kickoff is at 8:15 PM ET in Cleveland. Caesars Sportsbook lists Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or the total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 38 in the latest Steelers vs. Browns odds. Before making your Browns vs. Steelers picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

This model, which simulates every NFL play 10,000 times, has grown more than $7,000 for $100 players among the NFL’s top picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season with an incredible 139-102 record in NFL ranked picks dating back to the 2017 season.

The model has also finished in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years in direct NFL picks and has beaten more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who followed it goes above.

Now, the model has set her sights on the Steelers vs. Browns matchup and just posted her picks and predictions for Thursday’s football game. You can head over to SportsLine now to see the model selection. Now here are some NFL odds and betting lines for the Browns vs. Steelers matchup:

  • Spread Steelers vs. Browns: Browns -4.5
  • Steelers vs. Browns over/under: 38 points
  • Steelers vs. Browns money line: Browns -220, Steelers +180
  • PIT: Steelers are 9-10-1 against the spread in their last 20 games
  • CLE: Browns are 8-11 against the spread in their last 19 games
  • Steelers vs. Browns picks: See picks at SportsLine

Recommended game | Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Why the Steelers can cover

Pittsburgh has its strengths, but the Steelers also need to gain from Cleveland’s weaknesses to this point in the season. On offense, Cleveland is below the NFL average in yards and yards per attempt, and that looks to continue with the suspension of Deshaun Watson. Defensively, the Browns struggled last week against the Jets, scoring 31 points while Cleveland is allowing 27.5 points per game. Cleveland is well below average in passing yards allowed, touchdowns allowed, net yards per pass attempt allowed and third-down defense. Pittsburgh is also stout on defense, giving up just 37 points through two games.

The Steelers have their top star in Minkah Fitzpatrick, who already has two interceptions this season, and Pittsburgh is near the top of the league in interceptions (five) and turnover rate (25%). Opponents are producing just 4.0 yards per carry on the ground against the Steelers, and Mike Tomlin has a great reputation for getting his team ready in tough situations like a short week on the road in a divisional game.

Why the Browns can cover

Cleveland’s offense is off to a strong start, ranking solidly in the NFL’s top 10 in several categories, including points per game, points per drive, yards per carry and rushing yards. Defensively, the Browns are extremely talented as well, and Cleveland has an above-average total yards at just 330.5 per game. Cleveland ranks in the top 10 allowing just 35 first downs and opponents have just 147 rushing yards against the Browns through two games. That includes 3.8 yards per carry, and Myles Garrett is one of the best backs in the NFL.

Garrett, a dynamic defender, has been selected as an All-Pro the past two seasons and has four consecutive campaigns with double-digit sacks. Garrett has three sacks in two games this season and leads a Cleveland defense that should thrive against a struggling Pittsburgh offense. The Steelers have just two rushing touchdowns this season, and Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom 10 in total yards, first downs, passing yards, net yards per pass attempt, points per drive and yards per carry. Pittsburgh’s Mitchell Trubisky is averaging just 5.1 yards per attempt this season and has completed less than 35 percent of his throws of at least 10 yards.

How to make a Browns vs. Steelers pick

The SportsLine model is leaning toward the overall result, predicting 40 points scored. The model also says that one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the simulations. At SportsLine, you can only see the Steelers vs. Browns model picks.

So who will win Steelers vs. Browns on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Browns vs. Steelers split you need to fall on, all from a model that goes 139-102 in NFL picks, and find out.

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